New Surveys Show Trump Holding Narrow Leads in Key Battleground States, Setting Up Potential White House Return
In a critical development ahead of November’s election, new polling data from seven closely contested swing states shows Donald Trump edging closer to a potential second term as president. According to surveys conducted by Emerson College, the former president holds narrow but significant leads in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania—states that collectively represent 51 electoral votes. These leads, if they hold through Election Day, could propel Trump past the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency, with multiple paths back to the White House.
Arizona’s 11 electoral votes appear within Trump’s reach, as the former president leads Vice President Kamala Harris 49% to 47%. The Grand Canyon State is a standout in the polling, with Trump gaining support from female voters—a demographic he typically struggles with—leading Harris 50% to 47%. This may reflect growing dissatisfaction with Harris’s handling of border issues, which could be influencing both male and female voters in the region.
In Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead is even slimmer, standing at 49% to Harris’s 48% in each state. These razor-thin margins suggest a highly competitive race, but even small victories in these battlegrounds could give Trump the edge needed to secure victory. The former president has consistently held 49% in a series of polls in Pennsylvania, which pollster Spencer Kimball sees as a potential ceiling. However, with multiple candidates in the field, a plurality win could be enough for Trump to claim the Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes.
Meanwhile, the polls show a deadlock in two traditionally blue-wall states that Harris must win to retain the White House. In both Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump and Harris are tied at 49%. The split among union households could be influencing this dynamic, with Harris leading in Michigan by 10 points and in Wisconsin by 26 points, while Trump holds a surprising 10-point advantage among union voters in Pennsylvania.
Harris’s lone lead comes from Nevada, where she holds a narrow 48% to 47% margin. While this could provide some comfort to the Democrats, the race remains too close to call in a state that will be crucial for both candidates.
Despite Trump’s standing in the presidential race, downballot races are not following suit. In Arizona, Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake trails Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego by 7 points, and Michigan Republican Mike Rogers remains 5 points behind in his bid to replace retiring Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow. Similar trends are evident in Nevada, where Republican Sam Brown is 8 points behind Democratic incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen, and in Wisconsin, where Senator Tammy Baldwin holds a 4-point lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde.
As the election draws nearer, these battleground states will likely determine the outcome of the race, and Trump’s current leads could put him on a path back to the presidency. However, with margins this narrow, both campaigns face intense pressure to mobilize voters and secure every possible advantage in the weeks ahead.
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